Sports gambling is not as easy as some believe

Over the years we have heard many people argue that sports gambling is inherently more predictable than casino gambling and that gambling on sports using the form book offers a better chance of winning in the long term. Whilst this might be true on some occasions, events of this last week prove that gambling on sports is not as easy as some would have us believe. The world of tennis for example has been dominated in recent years by the four top ranked men’s players, so the form book would have suggested that the Wimbledon championships would continue that trend. Who would have predicted that neither Nadal nor Federer would make the second week. Then we had the F1 British Grand Pris on Sunday, and what a nightmare it turned out to be for fans of gambling on motor racing. In a season when Vetel appeared to be strolling to yet another world championship in spite of often being out-paced in qualification by Mercedes, including at Silverstone, this race may have been the turning point for the rest of the season. For 8 laps it looked as if Hamilton in his Mercedes may have the speed and tyre durability to go for a famous win on his home circuit, giving British fans of F1 gambling a good return but what happened next was unprecedented. Given the problems Mercedes have had with tyres all season, a spectacular blow-out on Hamilton’s car may have been predictable, but this was quickly followed by equally spectacular tyre failures on three other cars which even threatened the whole race. Motor racing gambling fans then found Vetel leading the race yet again by a considerable margin having avoided the tyre carnage, and another win seemed almost inevitable given the reliability of the Red Bull cars over recent seasons. However, gambling on motor racing is not that easy and Vetel came to a surprising halt with gearbox failure. Perhaps sports gambling is not so predictable after all, even when backing overwhelming favourites. Maybe there is a lot to be said for the predictable odds of casino gambling. Take your choice.